Публикация посвящена мировому рынку контейнерных перевозок и контейнерному флоту. В статье также исследуется связь между экономическим кризисом, в частности, в еврозоне, и развитием контейнеризованной морской торговли.
Back in April this year, Drewry’s Container Forecaster warned the container shipping industry not to be lulled into a false sense of security, as it faced a “test of resolve”. This position followed improvements in the financial position as east-west freight rates rose once more after the extremely low rates seen at the end of last year.
Such a situation suggested that the industry had turned a corner and that these higher rates would enable carriers to cover their rising costs and return a profit.
Three months later, in July, Drewry’s prediction that east-west freight rates, including fuel, would rise, seems to have been correct. Forecaster was more upbeat, stating: “Recent successful implementation of significant rate restoration initiatives by carriers in the core east-west trade lanes means that most are now operating above break-even.”
This was also achieved by carriers removing sufficient capacity during the winter months to ensure that reactivated services did not damage the supply/demand balance. In addition, load factors in the eastbound trans-Pacific sector remained strong.
So, is everything in the garden rosy again? Well, not quite!
Back in April again, Drewry highlighted that demand was by no means certain and, as a result, it downgraded its 2012 global container growth forecast to 4.6%, largely on the basis of the debt-crippled Eurozone. Its latest growth forecast for this year (in July) has sapped again, this time to 4.3%.
European imports from Asia since the start of this year have experienced month-by-month falls, which are expected to see this forecast downgraded even further. According to Rod Riseborough, CEO of Container Trade Statistics (CTS), box shipments from Asia during the second quarter of this year (April, May and June) showed falls of 2.6%, 3.22% and 8.8% respectively.
The worsening economic situation in Europe has not made things easy, and Drewry does not foresee a strong peak season this year. As a result, carriers will experience some rate erosion during the summer months, the very time that the peak season traditionally starts.
Neil Dekker, head of Drewry Container Research, explained in the company’s latest report, published at the end of June: “Capacity management throughout the second half of 2012 is crucial if carriers are not to undo all their efforts to force rates back up to profitable levels.”
Taking overall costs, particularly fuel, Dekker forecast that, after total losses of more than US$6bn in 2011 and an appalling Ql 2012, carriers collectively could make as much as US$1.8bn in profit; equally, they could make a loss of around US$1.3bn.
Determined
“This should provide a decent platform for 2013 when demand will improve slightly,” he suggested, adding that there are signs that carriers remain determined to keep rates at the highest level possible. The outcome will be that shippers will pay more in 2013, especially those who negotiated contracts when freight rates were in the doldrums at the end of last year.
“Responsible commercial pricing will eventually help iron out some of the huge volatility we have seen since 2008, creating a more stable service platform as carriers will be less likely to pull services quickly when they become unprofitable. The rhetoric coming from the new boss of Maersk in Copenhagen [S0ren Skou] is that the company is concentrating on profit now – this bodes very well for the industry,” suggested Dekker.
Indeed, last month (August) Maersk Line announced that it had returned to an operating profit, posting US$227m in the second quarter of 2012. This compared with a loss of US$95m a year ago. The company’s average freight rate rose by 4.2% in Q2 from a year earlier and by 14% from Ql 2012.
The shipping line told Reuters that it expected to reach a “modest positive result” for the year, based on higher freight rates, instead of its earlier forecast of a “negative up to neutral result”, despite the Eurozone crisis affecting container trade into Europe.
Drewry contends that the container shipping industry has started to find a new equilibrium, but that it needs to settle down and continue to create an “environment of stability”.
“Since there is little sign of significant demand growth in the headhaul east-west trades next year, the industry must refrain from ordering new ships in the next 18 months to enable a return to a more normal supply/demand balance in the medium term,” Dekker pointed out.
In amongst all this uncertainty shipping reliability has increased, with Drewry Maritime Research (DMR)’s quarterly Carrier Performance Insight report, published in August, showing that industry-wide, vessel schedule reliability improved to 75.7% in Q2 2012, an improvement of 3.4% on the 72.3% level achieved in the first quarter of the year.
Drewry attributes this to a settling down of schedules following network changes during April caused by the new alliances, such as G6 and CMA CGM/MSC.
This means that there have been reliability gains over five consecutive quarters. Seventeen of the 27 major container lines obtained a reliability score above the carrier industry’s 75.7% on-time average in the second quarter; only seven of the sample failed to improve on their score from the previous three months.
Ranking reliability by ship operator (excluding slot charter parties), Drewry showed that the most reliable carriers remained Hanjin, Maersk, Hamburg Slid and CSAV, with Maersk recording its best ever all-trades reliability score of 91.4%, up from the 89.8% in the first quarter.
Container fleet
Looking to the container equipment fleet, the latest DMR Container Census 2012 report shows uneven growth across 2011 as over-supply caught buyers out.
“The container equipment fleet grew by 8.5% during 2011, taking the global fleet to 31.25m teu, compared to a 7% growth in 2010. This was better than expected as demand for newbuilds suffered a knock from Q2 2011 onwards, with production significantly curtailed from that point,” states the report. This implies that up to 70% of 2011 ‘s net additions were made during the first six months of the year.
According to Drewry, the underlying reason for the second-half slowdown was an apparent misreading of demand; few buyers predicted an over-supply (900,000 teu at mid-2011 and over 500,000 teu at end-2011), which was exacerbated by a weak peak season. Even so, utilisation of the in-service fleet held at a very high level, topping 95%.
One knock-on effect of high utilisation was that container-to-slot operating levels dropped to historic lows, close to 1.8:1 in 2010/11 compared with 2:1 immediately preceding 2009.
“This has been achieved by shipping companies working their assets harder, which, considering the increasing container dwell times resulting from slow steaming, is something of an achievement,” suggested Andrew Foxcroft, the report’s author.
He forecast that annual container fleet growth will be in the order of 7% from 2012-15 as shipping companies continue to adopt a tight container-to-slot operating ratio, while also increasing replacement purchases in comparison with 2010-11.
Since 2009, fleet growth has been dominated by leasing companies, which posted teu growth of 10.6% in 2011 and 9% in 2009. This compares with 7% and 5.7% during the same years for shipping lines and other transport companies, with the former curtailing investment as their profits slumped and debts rose. However, some lines have tentatively resumed investment in equipment.
Newbuild dry freight pricing has continued to be volatile, thereby affecting the calculated capital equipment unit (CEU) valuation and new-for-old replacement cost of the global container fleet. Dry freight prices attained their highest level (almost US$3,000 per CEU) in early 2011, by which time the replacement cost of the global fleet was up by more a third on its level at the start of 2010.
However, the fleet’s corresponding CEU valuation was down slightly, because of the sharp upward movement of dry freight prices, in contrast with the more static level of reefer/tank pricing.
Throughout 2011, the reverse occurred. CEU values increased, as against no real change in the fleet’s replacement cost. This was due to an overall 20% fall in dry freight pricing against the continued static level of reefer/tank costs. The dry freight price subsequently recovered by 20% during the first half of 2012 (to US$2,750 per CEU), before going into decline again.
Foxcroft nevertheless stated: “The outlook is for pricing to stay high, with the annualised forecast holding at US$2,500 for 2012 and 2013.”
Автор: Geoff Adam
Источник: Container Management. – 2012. – September/October. – P. 62 – 65.