The last August report by USDA has substantially amended the harvest forecast for the 2021/22 МР (marketing period). Moreover, it predicts the Ukrainian agro sector to take the lead among global exporters of spring wheat and corn.
Wheat
According to the last USDA report, the world wheat production forecast on 2021/22 МР has shrunk by 15.49M t – down to 776.91M t. As per the last harvesting results the volumes of spring wheat in the USA have fallen down to the minimum of 2014 and 2015. The same decrease forecasts are for China, Kazakhstan, and most of all for the Russian Federation (by 12.5M t – to 72.5M t). The cause lays in unfavourable climatic conditions and the drought observed latest weeks on the spring wheat plantings.
Simultaneously, the forecast of wheat production for Ukraine has enlarged by 10% up to 33M t.
Corn
The USDA experts have also lowered the assessed corn harvest down to 4.17 tpha thus reducing the world product anticipation by 8.68M t (down to 1,186.12M t) – first of all due to the USA production abruptly falling by 10.53M t – down to 374.68M t.
The estimates of corn prospects in Ukraine are vice-versa very optimistic and witness the harvest growing up to 39M t being by 1.5M t more than the July’s prognosis.
Prices and predictions
Such anticipations by the USDA experts have caused a spike of prices at the exchange and spot markets. According to the ProAgro Group monitoring, at the domestic basis for only the recent week the demand prices for the food and fodder wheat have risen in average by 700 UAH/t. Among the drivers of the prices growth let alone the last USDA forecasts came the restraint of high-quality wheat sales by the manufacturers. Due to which the best price fluctuates at 350 UAH/t as compares to 50 UAH/t last MP.
The same way barley prices boosted breaking records by average 600 UAH/t. This happened partially on account of the restraint by manufacturers, resulting in the exporters’ purchase prices jump in elevators and ports. It’s worth to note that in July Ukraine exported 1.1M t of barley beating records.
As for the corn market, the growth took place only in forward contracts while the prices remain the same.
“Ukraine should take advantage of the situation. This country indeed is one of the few world exporters whose production potential was reviewed by USDA as growing. Such a production record will favour the export activities which is also going to become a record for the 2021/22 campaign. The corn yield is expected to rise as well, and the USDA assessment is 39M t being another record, so this all may result in renewal of many export records”, the USDA experts point out in the last report.
Therefore, the USDA forecast on the wheat export from Ukraine in 2021/22 МР is enlarged up to 23.5M t being by 2.M t more than the forecast a month ago.
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