Технический прогресс на морском транспорте привел к достижениям, которые не так давно казались научной фантастикой. Уровень развития техники зависит не только от научных достижений, но и от экономических реалий. Опыт автоматизации в авиации и автомобильном транспорте свидетельствует, что имеются определенные проблемы, связанные с автоматизацией. Например: неоправданно высокие ожидания от автоматизации технических процессов.
Just because a system has been automated doesn’t mean it has become immune to error.
It may be I’m sensitive to the subject, but it seems there is a continuing stream of articles in the press today regarding technology in marine transportation; drone or autonomous ships, aviation style VTS traffic systems, shore-based piloting, etc. It’s a subject pulling our imaginations in directions that not long ago would have been science fiction. So it may be natural that there is discussion in marine transportation on the subject.
The commercial factor
It is singularly vital that the argument for automation isn’t just about the science, it’s about commerce, a changing world trade picture and ultimately competition for market share. International liner companies are in a ‘no holds barred’ competition, attempting to bring under control costs that are partially self-induced (through deliberate overbuilding) and partially a natural progression of changing world trade. It should be no surprise that cost and control becomes the primary issue in the sector, thus the appeal of technology, even to the automation of shipping itself. Eliminate the human element and, supposedly, we solve a host of thorny issues that affect profit and control, especially control; no more captains or pilots telling the conglomerate no, it’s not safe to sail or no, we cannot dock due to weather, etc.
Auto and aviation
We hear a lot about automation in the auto and aviation sectors, but in fact, neither sector has advanced to the point of complete automation. Pilots still fly the planes ‘through the automation’ and even Google is still working out the bugs of automated cars. There is no doubt, however, they are both much farther along in automation – and that there are some worrying problems developing in aviation. In a recent Vaiiit)’ Fair article, columnist William Langewiesche delivers a compelling discussion about aviation automation. Discussing the June 2009 Air France #447 accident over the Atlantic, he explores how a series of small errors turned a state of the art flight deck into a death trap; the unimaginable occurred in one of the most sophisticated aircraft in the world. The initial problem was a relatively minor failure, however, between computerised autonomous flight control and a lack of understanding of what was occurring from the pilots, the most sophisticated aircraft in the world plummeted into the depths.
Skillfade
A comment from the accident investigation noted that although two of the three pilots had extensive fix ing time in that particular aircraft, the vast majority of those hours were spent in a monitoring role through the automation. Is it possible, over time, that automation induced a degradation of basic flying skills? Could the very same thing occur in marine transportation? Many in aviation believe it is not only possible but probable and that today’s pilots should be training on the fundamentals, honing basic flying skills as they are apparently necessary even in a near fully automated cockpit. There is a direct connection between over-reliance on aviation technology and potential for over-reliance on marine transportation bridge technology. As marine transportation enters the automation process, aviation allows a glimpse of future problems.
Over-reliance
Few pilots or mariners would argue that the future w ill see autonomous ships. The question is when? Marine transportation is a long way from present day aviation as regards automation. However, many of the enthusiastic proponents of automation seem to think the time to discuss future changes is now. Maritime practitioners would not argue that there should be theoretical discussion about how best to prepare and manage for the future of marine transportation but not at the expense of reason and common sense. In an article in the November issue of Pacific Maritime, ‘E-Nav Risk Management’, Michael A Moore claims that ‘electronic navigation’s bright shining promise of reducing maritime risk has a very real dark lining – increased risk of collisions and groundings if the technical side of e-navigation is not properly integrated with the humans in control on the bridge.’ Similarly, in the latest edition of the Great Circle online magazine, Thor Hukkelas, Principal Engineer Marine Operations for Kongsberg Maritime says: ‘We are surrounded by more and more automatic, apparently intelligent and autonomous systems. Despite the fact that these systems become increasingly reliable, they will eventually fail.’ … ‘We think the answer is first and foremost proper skills training and then realising that the best source of information available to the mariner is what you see outside the window. Why should you need virtual reality or even augmented reality when the real reality is what’s happening around you?’
Looking in or looking out?
Rapidly advancing technology and the lessons learned from aviation have begun to ring alarm bells among more seasoned professionals in marine transportation. Experienced ship pilots (like our aviation colleagues) are becoming concerned with the growing tendency on ship bridges best described as a ‘looking in’ as opposed to ‘looking out’. As a pilot I see it on the bridge of ships. Officers will actually focus attention on automated positioning/piloting systems and indicating vectors to the exclusion of what is going on outside the wheelhouse window.
The lesson from aviation is clear; it is folly to over-rely on automation. Captain Sully Sullenberger safely landed a jet on the Hudson River in New York not because of technology, but because he had extensive ‘glider’ experience, hands on stick time. International marine transportation should embrace advances in technology that make marine transportation safer and more economical but reason, common sense and safety must be the underlying principle guiding all. Against the backdrop of ever greater automation, Masters and ship pilots should continue to spend time honing the fundamentals of shiphandling even as others in marine transportation look to future technology. Some time before the end of this century we will see autonomous marine transportation systems. In the meantime, we all have to acknowledge the primary role captains and pilots will play in making and keeping marine transportation safe for the greater public trust.
A version of this article first appeared in Work Boat World
Автор:
George Livingstone
FNI, Vice President, The Nautical Institute
Источник:
Seawazs. – 2015. – March. – P. 22.