The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has deteriorated its forecast on Ukrainian corn exports in 2020-21 marketing year (MY – July 2020 to June 2021) by 8M t or 22% as compared to the October forecast i.e. down to 22.5M t.
According to USDA’s November report, the corn harvest forecast for Ukraine is lowered by 8M t i.e. to 28.5M t. The estimate of the corn remainder in Ukraine for the mentioned period is left without changes i.e. at the 1.16M t level.
The export of corn from Ukraine and harvest was not revised in this month and is foreseen at the level of 17.5M t and 25.5M t accordingly.
USDA has also left unchanged in November the Ukrainian barley export forecast – 4M t, and its production – 8M t.
USDA experts point out that the global corn production is anticipated at the level of 1.145Bn t, which is by 14.19M t less than the previous forecast. The export is expected at 184.77M t, which is a bit more than the previous forecast.
Along with that, USDA experts forecast China’s enlarging corn import by 54% i.e. up to 13M t. All the while, the import forecast for the EU was reduced down to 20M t, for Mexico – to 17.3M t, and Iran – to 8M t.
The global wheat production forecast on 2020-2021 MY was cut down to 772.38M t comparing to the earlier voiced 73.08M t. The global wheat grain export forecast for the current season is raised by analysists from the earlier publicized 189.59M t up to 190.46M t.
The estimate of wheat shipments from Russia is increased up to 39.5M t, from the EU – up to 26M t, Kazakhstan – to 6.7M t, and Turkey – 6.7M t as well. Simultaneously the prediction is a little reduced for Argentina – down to 12.5M t.
As per the data by Ukrainian Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture, the grain export from the beginning of MY 2020-21 has amounted to 17.351M t as of November 09, against 20.944M t as of the corresponding date in MY 2019-20.
https:/ports.ua/usda-snizilo-prognoz-eksporta-kukuruzy-iz-ukrainy-v-2020-2021-mg/